Sławomir Dudek

According to the estimates of independent experts - former longtime employees of the Ministry of Finance, the real budget deficit may amount to over 235 billion PLN. That's 345% of what the government presents.

Russia's criminal invasion on independent Ukraine is now in its ninth month. Invasion’s tragic consequences reached also the territory of Poland, which may turn out to be even more detrimental if PiS passes a change in the constitution. The amendment is about excluding defense spending from public debt. The ruling coalition is blind to arguments that security is not only about tanks and cannons.

The true budget deficit at the end of 2023 will amount to over 206 billion PLN. The budget debate taking place in Sejm today is based on the draft budget, which does not show the full picture of state’s expenditures and revenues. Long-term employees of the Ministry of Finance (Sławomir Dudek, Ludwik Kotecki, Hanna Majszczyk) show what the budget’s draft for 2023 should really look like.

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Polish Law and Justice government began to work on creating two new funds in the state-owned Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego to finance “systemic aid” and additional military spending.

In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Law and Justice government began work on creating two new funds in the state-owned Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego to finance "systemic aid" and additional military spending. At the moment, the debt beyond the control of the parliament amounts to PLN 260 billion. According to the government's plans, by the end of this year it will amount to PLN 350 billion, and by 2025 to over PLN 400 billion, i.e. about a quarter of the public debt calculated according to the EU methodology. The constitutionality of such actions raises serious doubts.

The war in Ukraine will affect Poland's socio-economic situation through many channels, both in the short and long term. In the near term, we are facing phenomena close to stagflation: a weakening of economic growth and even higher inflation, even double-digit inflation. The short-term outlook is difficult. The economy will be far from balanced and prone to turbulence. We all hope that the war will end quickly. But it will trigger changes in many areas. Perhaps a new "cold war" will begin, which for Poland will mean having to function under a permanent military threat from an aggressive neighbour. Therefore, the strengthening of the country's security must be comprehensive - a broader perspective is necessary, and sustainable systemic solutions are required, including in the medium and long term.

Inflation is a form of hidden tax. "Hidden" because it is not introduced by law by parliament, and its effect is poorly understood by the public; nor do we see it in the annual accounts. It is referred to as a "tax" because the biggest beneficiary of inflation is the public finance sector (the state).​